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一、經濟增長下滑的背后
2014年GDP增長和工業(yè)增長分別為24年和20年來得最低點，引發(fā)諸多擔憂。其實最近兩年經濟增長出現罕見平穩(wěn)，高于下行趨勢線；“平線”走勢（對應08-09V型底）。從趨勢看，2015年慣性下滑的可能性更大。PPI持續(xù)下滑與農民工工資持續(xù)較快增長擠壓利潤空間。行業(yè)分化非常明顯（資源密集型行業(yè)利潤率非常低）。部分地區(qū)罕見下滑（東北、山西、河北）。鐵路、外貿貨運下滑（資源型產業(yè)、出口產業(yè)下滑）。人們習慣了過去的高增長，今天的正常增長就“慢”了。
二、未來經濟增長的趨勢
截止第一季度末，第三產業(yè)首次超過GDP的一半；基礎建設保持持續(xù)增長；民間資本占社會總投資的三分之二，生產性服務業(yè)投資高速增長；房地產供需矛盾，價格會下滑；網購帶動的不僅是消費，使快遞等業(yè)務連續(xù)4年保持50%以上的增長。
三、如何理解新常態(tài)下的中國經濟
認識新常態(tài)，適應新常態(tài)，引領新常態(tài)，是當前和今后一個時期我國經濟發(fā)展的大邏輯。新聞聯播討論“新常態(tài)”的背景圖：30多年的快速增長，其背后是資源、環(huán)境、和諧等各方面付出的代價。企業(yè)的本質困難是產能過剩而非需求不足。協同推進新型工業(yè)化、城鎮(zhèn)化、信息化、農業(yè)現代化和綠色化，牢固樹立“青山綠水就是金山銀山”的理念。市場解決效率問題，政府解決公平問題。促進經濟發(fā)展的同時，促進社會公平正義、增進人民福祉是經濟體制改革的出發(fā)點和落腳點。2015年是全面深化改革的關鍵之年，是全面推進依法治國的開局之年，也是全面完成“十二五”規(guī)劃的收官之年。把轉方式調結構放到更重要位置，狠抓改革攻堅，突出創(chuàng)新驅動，強化風險防控，加強民生保障，促進經濟平穩(wěn)健康發(fā)展和社會和諧穩(wěn)定。
農業(yè)部畜牧業(yè)司副司長 王俊勛
2014年畜牧生產回顧：
生豬：存欄4.66億頭，下降1.8%；出欄7.35億頭，增長2.75%；肉產量5671萬噸，增長3.2%。
禽蛋：2894萬噸，增長0.6%。牛肉：689萬噸，增長2.4%。羊肉：428萬噸，增長4.9%。禽肉：1751萬噸，下降2.7%。牛奶：3725萬噸，增長5.5%。
生豬生產形勢：2014年全年，只有8-10月略有盈利，全年平均出欄一頭肥豬虧損100元。豬糧比價已連續(xù)65周低于6:1的盈虧平衡點。
飼料總產量：1.97億噸，比2013年增長2%。其中，配合飼料1.69億噸，同比增長3.8%；濃縮飼料2151萬噸，同比下降10%；添加劑預混合飼料641萬噸，同比增長1.1%。豬飼料產量8616萬噸，同比增長2.4%；蛋禽飼料產量2902萬噸，同比下降4.4%；肉禽飼料產量5033萬噸，同比增長1.7%；水產飼料產量1903萬噸，同比增長2.1%；反芻動物飼料產量876萬噸，同比增長10.2%；其他飼料產量397萬噸，同比增長37.8%。飼料新法規(guī)實施，飼料企業(yè)數量明顯減少。2014年底，配合、濃縮和精料補充飼料獲證企業(yè)5531個，比2013年底減少4582個；添加劑預混合飼料和單一飼料獲證企業(yè)數量分別減少339個和411個。2014年，全國9省區(qū)飼料產量過千萬噸，占全國飼料63%，包括廣東、山東、河南、遼寧、河北、湖南、四川、廣西和江蘇，江蘇是今年的新成員。2014年，百萬噸以上的飼料企業(yè)（集團）31個，比2013年增加6個；產量10352萬噸，占全國的52%，比2013年增長4%。
受養(yǎng)殖調整影響，今年一季度飼料總產量以及配合、濃縮、預混合飼料產量均同比下降4%、3.2%、9.2%和4.3%。
農業(yè)新形勢：成就大，壓力大，成本“地板”與價格“天花板”雙重擠壓；新思路、新視野、新辦法，有“生產導向”向“消費導向”轉變；加快農牧結合；治理農業(yè)污染。
畜牧業(yè)新特征：產量總體進入低速增長階段；區(qū)域布局從東部向中西部、糧食主產區(qū)轉移；環(huán)境約束剛性化；消費波動對生產影響加大；集團化、一體化、全產業(yè)鏈加快發(fā)展。
飼料行業(yè)：在創(chuàng)新中尋找機遇。創(chuàng)新商業(yè)模式和互聯網技術將帶來新機遇；規(guī)�；膬�(yōu)勢將體現的更加充分；產業(yè)鏈發(fā)展成為大型企業(yè)集團的必然選擇；生物技術的作用越來越大。
美國谷物協會北京辦事處主任 樓瑞恩
美國玉米2014年高產，比2013年增加980萬噸，預計2015年產量大幅度下降，比2014年下降近3000萬噸。8年持續(xù)增長6600萬噸，乙醇需求增加，飼料需求增長緩慢，出口大幅度增加。巴西、阿根廷、烏克蘭2014-2015年度產量和出口量略有下降，消費量增加，庫存下降。
美國DDGS增產取決于E15乙醇的推廣使用和乙醇出口的增長。
高粱有許多優(yōu)勢：非轉基因，節(jié)水，霉菌毒素低，單寧含量低，改善豬肉品質，降低糞污中的營養(yǎng)物質排放。美國高粱由于中國進口而處于歷史高位，并會刺激高粱播種面積增長，預計高粱的出口還會不斷增長。
中國玉米網總裁 馮利臣
2014/2015糧食年度售糧情況回顧：
啟動早：2014年一號文件明確指出，繼續(xù)執(zhí)行玉米臨儲政策，產區(qū)貿易商信心十足，收購啟動早，亦多有提前預定糧源情況出現。
收的快：臨儲政策明確，貿易商信心充足，紛紛看好后市，各企業(yè)處以臨儲為目標，爭相采購糧源。
政策好：11月25日臨儲政策發(fā)文，開啟新糧食年度臨儲收購序幕，后期追加“霉變放寬”政策，繼續(xù)利好玉米市場。
入庫多：臨儲敞開收購，貿易商提前儲備臨儲糧源，使得臨儲入庫量持續(xù)維持高位。
庫存高：對比去年市場情況，今年貿易商多有“小庫存”現象，總庫存量不容忽視。
一直強：新糧上市以來，企業(yè)處開秤價格同比偏高，貿易商采購熱情高漲，售糧價格基本維持高位。
中儲糧政策提高了糧食儲備，有利于穩(wěn)定糧價，提高農民種植積極性，同時也能夠從國際市場獲取更多低價的高粱、大麥和DDGS等原料。由于中國普遍缺水，馬鈴薯的種植面積會逐步增長。
截止4月20日，東北玉米臨儲量已經達到8217萬噸，占總產量的88%。包括：產量因素、政策因素、市場因素和消費因素。臨儲收購創(chuàng)天量將會導致高價糧外運困難，喪失價格優(yōu)勢，價格或許仍有上漲空間，并最終倒逼東北臨儲拍賣現身。
今年玉米價格的最高點已經在3月份出現，8、9月份不會出現高位，飼料企業(yè)采購的低點還有機會。
全國畜牧總站站長、中國飼料工業(yè)協會常務副會長兼秘書長李希榮
我國飼料行業(yè)將由高速增長轉變?yōu)橹懈咚僭鲩L。
1、畜產品消費形式發(fā)生新變化，消費總量平穩(wěn)增長，擠出政府消費泡沫，消費回歸正常。
2、畜產品供求發(fā)生新變化，總量平衡，出現結構性短缺和階段性剩余。
3、畜牧業(yè)產能過剩，企業(yè)面臨突出問題，需要企業(yè)自身解決。
4、國內外畜產品發(fā)生新變化，價格倒掛，將受到進口畜產品沖擊，如進口豬肉6.5元/斤。
5、區(qū)域布局發(fā)生新變化，由南方禁養(yǎng)、限養(yǎng)往北方轉移。
6、畜牧業(yè)生產方式發(fā)生新變化，散戶退出加速，規(guī)�；l(fā)展放緩。
7、畜牧業(yè)制約因素發(fā)生新變化，養(yǎng)殖土地政策和環(huán)境保護法。
8、畜產品營銷方式發(fā)生新變化，除傳統銷售外，直銷、網絡、電子交易平臺會不斷增長。
9、畜產品消費結構發(fā)生新變化，禽肉會增加，豬肉會下降。
10、畜牧業(yè)生產收益發(fā)生新變化，受成本“地板”和價格“天花板”雙重擠壓，成本增加，價格受限，利潤率降低。
11、糧食供求發(fā)生新變化，調整種植結構（青貯玉米、苜蓿草），實現種植和養(yǎng)殖共同發(fā)展。
12、草原畜牧業(yè)發(fā)生新變化，大力發(fā)展人工草料，人工圈養(yǎng)，滿足消費需求。
13、畜牧業(yè)政策環(huán)境發(fā)生新變化，如取消母豬補貼。
各飼料企業(yè)需要仔細研究問題，才能尋找到適合自己發(fā)展的出路。
The English version
A, economic growth fell behind
In 2014 GDP growth and industrial growth for 24 years and 20 years come low respectively, causing many worries. Actually the last two years rare smooth economic growth, higher than the downward trend line; "Flat line" direction (08-09 v). From the trend, more likely to decline in 2015 inertia. Producer prices falling and migrant wages continued rapid growth squeezing profit margins. Industry differentiation is obvious (resource-intensive industry profit margin is very low). In parts of the rare drop (northeast, shanxi, hebei). Railway, foreign trade freight decline (resources industry, the decline in export industries). People accustomed to high growth in the past, today's normal growth was "slow".
Second, the trend of future economic growth
2015 government work report on the current international situation judgment: the world economy is under the depth adjustment, recovery of steam, geopolitical influence is aggravating, uncertain factors increase. Conclusion: the situation is the same as the 2015 and 2014, cannot be placed too high expectations, and, of course, also need not worry too much. By the end of the first quarter, the third industry more than half of GDP for the first time; Infrastructure to maintain sustained growth; Private capital accounts for two-thirds of the total investment, the investment growth of producer services; The contradiction between supply and demand of real estate prices will decline; Online shopping is not only driven by consumption, keep the express delivery business for four years more than 50% growth.
Third, how to understand China's economy under the new normal
To know the new normal, to adapt to the new normal, leading the new normal, China's economic development is the current and future a period of great logic. News broadcast talk about background of the "new normal", more than 30 years of rapid growth, its resources, environment, harmony is behind the price etc. The essence of the enterprise is difficult capacity rather than excess demand. Collaborative promote the new industrialization, urbanization, informationization, agricultural modernization and greening, firmly establish a "green hills and water is jinshan yinshan" concept. The efficiency of market to solve the problem, the government solve the problem of fairness. Promoting economic development at the same time, promote social fairness and justice, to improve people's welfare is the starting point and the foothold of economic system reform. 2015 years is the key to comprehensively deepen reform, is the starting year of the rule of law, and complete the final year of the 12th five-year plan. Turn the way of structural adjustment in more important positions, vigorously promotes the reform, and highlight the innovation drive and strengthen risk control and prevention, strengthen the security of the people's livelihood, promote healthy steady economic development and social harmony and stability.
The ministry of agriculture animal husbandry department deputy director Wang Junxun
Livestock production in 2014 to review:
Pig: the amount of 466 million fell by 1.8%; Such 735 million, up 2.75%; Meat production 56.71 million tons, an increase of 3.2%.
Egg: 28.94 million tons, an increase of 0.6%. Beef: 6.89 million tons, an increase of 2.4%. Lamb: 4.28 million tons, an increase of 4.9%. Poultry: 17.51 million tons, down 2.7%. Milk: 37.25 million tons, an increase of 5.5%.
Pig production situation: all of 2014, a slight profit, only 8-10 month average such a pig head loss of 100 yuan. Pig grain price below 6:1 65 consecutive weeks of break-even point.
Feed output: 197 million tons, up 2% from 2013. Among them, compound feed 169 million tons, up 3.8%; 21.51 million tons of concentrated feed, fell 10% year on year; Additive premix feed 6.41 million tons, up 1.1% from a year earlier. Pig feed production 86.16 million tons, up 2.4%; Egg feed production 29.02 million tons, fell 4.4% year on year; Meat and poultry feed production 50.33 million tons, up 1.7%; Aquatic feed production 19.03 million tons, up 2.1%; Ruminant feed production 8.76 million tons, up 10.2%; Other feed production 3.97 million tons, up 37.8% from a year earlier. Feed the new regulations, feed the number decreased significantly. At the end of 2014, cooperate, enrichment and supplement concentrate feed certification, enterprises 5531, less than at the end of 2013, 4582. Additive premix feeds and the single feed the certification number to reduce 339 and 411 respectively. In 2014, the nine provinces of feed production ten million tons, 63% of the feed, including guangdong, shandong, henan, liaoning, hebei, hunan, sichuan, guangxi and jiangsu, jiangsu is the new members this year. In 2014, more than 2014 tons of feed enterprises (group) 31, six more than in 2013; Production of 103.52 million tons, 52% of the country's, up 4% from 2013.
Influenced by breeding adjustment, in the first quarter of this year and cooperate, enrichment, premixed feed feed production output fell by 4%, 3.2%, 9.2% and 4.3%.
Agricultural new situation: achievement big, pressure is big, cost "floor" and "ceiling" price squeezed; New thinking, new vision, new way to have a "production guide" to "consumer oriented"; To speed up the agriculture and animal husbandry; The governance of agricultural pollution.
New features: animal husbandry production overall into the slow growth stage; Regional distribution from east to the Midwest, the major grain producing areas; Environmental constraints, rigid; Consumption fluctuations affect production increase; Collectivization, integration, the whole industry chain to accelerate development.
Feed industry: looking for opportunities in the innovation. Innovative business model and the Internet technology will bring new opportunities; The advantage of scale will embody more adequately; Industrial development will become the inevitable choice of large enterprise groups; The role of biological technology is more and more big.
The American association of cereal, director of the Beijing office Floor Ryan
U.S. corn high yield, 2014, 9.8 million tons more than in 2013, is expected to 2015 annual production of dropped substantially, lower than in 2014 nearly 30 million tons. 8 years of continued growth, 66 million tons of ethanol demand increase, the feed demand growth is slow, exports increased dramatically. Brazil, Argentina, Ukraine, 2014-2015 annual output and exports fell slightly, increased consumption, falling inventories.
Promote the use of the DDGS production depends on E15 ethanol and ethanol export growth.
Sorghum has many advantages: non-gmo, water saving, lower mycotoxin, low tannin content, improving pork quality, reduce the nutrients in the waste emissions. The historically high due to imports of Chinese sorghum, and stimulates the sorghum planting area of growth, sorghum exports is expected to be growing.
China's corn net President Feng Lichen
2014/2015 food annual did situation review:
Start early: in 2014, it is pointed out in one file, continue to implement the corn in the store policy, production areas, traders confidence acquisition started early, many also booked stocks.
Closed fast: in the store policy clear, traders confidence enough, are bullish, each enterprise be in store for the target, rushed to purchase stocks.
Good policy: on November 25, near the store policy articles, the new food store to buy in the annual gatherings, additional late "mildew relax" policy, continue to good corn market.
Storage: store in the open bid, traders in the reserve in advance store stocks, making store receipts have remained high.
High inventory: the market situation compared to last year, this year many traders "small inventory" phenomenon, a stronger stock cannot be ignored.
Since going public, has strong: the new food business: begin business price on the high side, compared to the same trader purchasing enthusiasm, did basic maintain high prices.
In grain storage policy to improve the grain reserves, is beneficial to stabilize prices, increase the farmers grow enthusiasm, also can get more low price on the international market of raw materials such as sorghum, barley and DDGS. Because of China's general lack water, potato planting area will gradually increase.
As of April 20, in the northeast corn reserves reached 82.17 million tons, accounting for 88% of the total output. Include: production factors, policy factors, market factors, and consumption. In the store to buy a day of sinotrans will lead to high food difficulties, loss of price advantage, price increases, maybe there is still a space, and eventually reversed transmission store auction appeared in the northeast.
Its highest level this year, corn prices have already appeared in March, 8, 9 months will not be high, feed enterprises purchasing low still have a chance.
The national animal husbandry station stationmaster, China feed industry association executive vice President and secretary general Li Xirong
Feed industry in China will be transformed into rapid growth in the high speed growth.
1, consumption form new changes in animal production and steady growth of total consumption, government consumption bubble, consumer return to normal.
2, new changes in animal products supply and demand, the aggregate balance, structural shortage and surplus by phases.
3, animal husbandry, excess production capacity, the enterprise faces prominent question, need to solve by themselves.
4 the new changes in animal products both at home and abroad, selling price, will be subject to import animal by-products, such as pork imports 6.5 yuan/kg.
5, regional layout, new changes have taken place by the southern ban, be restricted to a shift toward the north.
6, new changes in the way of animal husbandry production, retail exit speed, scale development to slow.
Seven new changes, animal husbandry, restricting factors, farming land policy and environmental protection.
Eight new changes in the way, the animal products marketing, in addition to the traditional marketing, direct marketing, network, electronic trading platforms will continue to grow.
9, animal products, the new changes in the consumption structure, can increase poultry, pork will decline.
10, livestock production gains new changes, the cost of dual extrusion "floor" and "ceiling" price, cost, price limits, lower profit margins.
11, the new changes in food demand and supply, adjust the planting structure (silage corn, alfalfa), realize common development of planting and breeding.
12 new changes, grassland animal husbandry, developing artificial forage, captivity, to meet consumer demand.
13 new changes, livestock policy environment, such as cancel the sow subsidies.
Each feed enterprises requires careful research problem, to find the way out for their development.
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